Quarterly GPPA earnings data: Time‐series properties and predictive ability results in the airlines industry

W. A. Hillison, W. S. Hopwood, Kenneth S Lorek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary results regarding the impact of general purchasing power adjustments (GPPA) on quarterly earnings for 24 firms from the airlines industry. Findings indicated that GPPA transformations do not substantially alter the time‐series properties of quarterly earnings data. Two Box‐Jenkins models, (100) × (100) and (100) × (110) were identified as possible parsimonious models for the airlines industry. It is recommended that these structures be considered as viable candidates for earnings expectations models in market studies testing for informational content of GPPA earnings. The predictive findings demonstrated that predictions of historical cost quarterly earnings were significantly more accurate than GPPA predictions for four of the five horizons tested.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)363-375
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume2
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1983
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Purchasing
Time Series Data
Adjustment
Industry
Prediction
Horizon
Model
Testing
Airline industry
Purchasing power
Time series data
Predictive ability
Costs

Keywords

  • Box‐Jenkins models
  • Predictive ability
  • Purchasing power adjusted earnings
  • Reported quarterly earnings

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Quarterly GPPA earnings data : Time‐series properties and predictive ability results in the airlines industry. / Hillison, W. A.; Hopwood, W. S.; Lorek, Kenneth S.

In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1983, p. 363-375.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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