Modeling of wind power production forecast errors for wind integration studies

Jason J. Kemper, Mark F. Bielecki, Thomas L. Acker

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

In wind integration studies, accurate representations of the wind power output from potential wind power plants and corresponding representations of wind power forecasts are needed, and typically used in a production cost simulation. Two methods for generating "synthetic" wind power forecasts that capture the statistical trends and characteristics found in commercial forecasting techniques are presented. These two methods are based on auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models and the Markov random walk method. Statistical criteria are suggested for evaluation of wind power forecast performance, and both synthetic forecast methods proposed are evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively. The forecast performance is then compared with a commercial forecast used for an operational wind power plant in the Northwestern United States evaluated using the same statistical performance measures. These quantitative evaluation parameters are monitored during specific months of the year, during rapid ramping events, and at all times. The best ARMA based models failed to replicate the auto-regressive decay of forecast errors associated with commercial forecasts. A modification to the Markov method, consisting of adding a dimension to the state transition array, allowed the forecast time series to depend on multiple inputs. This improvement lowered the artificial variability in the original time series. The overall performance of this method was better than for the ARMA based models, and provides a suitable technique for use in creating a synthetic wind forecast for a wind integration study.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010
Pages885-894
Number of pages10
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2010
EventASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010 - Phoenix, AZ, United States
Duration: May 17 2010May 22 2010

Publication series

NameASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010
Volume2

Other

OtherASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010
CountryUnited States
CityPhoenix, AZ
Period5/17/105/22/10

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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  • Cite this

    Kemper, J. J., Bielecki, M. F., & Acker, T. L. (2010). Modeling of wind power production forecast errors for wind integration studies. In ASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010 (pp. 885-894). (ASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, ES 2010; Vol. 2). https://doi.org/10.1115/ES2010-90441