Drug control policy and smuggling innovation: A game-theoretic analysis

Christopher P. Krebs, Michael Costelloe, David Jenks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Noncooperative game theory has been proposed as a research tool to be used in the study of criminal decision-making processes. Despite this offering, game theory has enjoyed very little attention from criminologists. In this study, game theory is applied to a specific crime, drug smuggling, in order to determine if fluctuations in key policy variables have the potential to diminish the expected utility of smuggling drugs, thus encouraging lawful behavior. The simulation proposed herein indicates that decreasing the expected utility of smuggling drugs to a level where lawful behavior is likely to be chosen is an infeasible mission from a policy perspective. Additionally, a recent drug smuggling innovation, known as "black powder," is likely to only increase the expected utility of smuggling drugs. Black powder is a simple industrial cloaking method that renders many surveillance strategies and chemical tests futile. The consequences of black powder and the exchange between drug control agents and drug smugglers are discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)133-160
Number of pages28
JournalJournal of Drug Issues
Volume33
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 2003
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Drug Trafficking
smuggling
Drug and Narcotic Control
Game Theory
innovation
drug
Powders
game theory
Crime
Decision Making
decision-making process
fluctuation
surveillance
offense
Research
Pharmaceutical Preparations
simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Health(social science)

Cite this

Drug control policy and smuggling innovation : A game-theoretic analysis. / Krebs, Christopher P.; Costelloe, Michael; Jenks, David.

In: Journal of Drug Issues, Vol. 33, No. 1, 12.2003, p. 133-160.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Krebs, Christopher P. ; Costelloe, Michael ; Jenks, David. / Drug control policy and smuggling innovation : A game-theoretic analysis. In: Journal of Drug Issues. 2003 ; Vol. 33, No. 1. pp. 133-160.
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