Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant

Samuel Monger, Eric Morgan, Ana Dyreson, Tom L Acker

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

One-second irradiance data from forty-five irradiance sensors spaced over a one-mile square section of land were analyzed to characterize the variability of the solar resource in Northern Arizona. The geostatistical interpolation model known as kriging was applied to our data set to better understand the method's strengths and weaknesses in accurately predicting the variations in the irradiance over this relatively small section of land. Of particular interest was to investigate the ability of the kriging method to show the variation in solar irradiance over the section of land as compared to that measured by the sensors. Kriging performed very well when compared to the sensors when using all the sensors as input to the prediction method. The purpose of this paper will be to present the results of applying the method to predict the variations in the irradiance, including how many sensors are required as input to the kriging technique in order to generate a reliable prediction. Solar data from four characteristic periods (related to the four seasons) were analyzed, and different sensor configurations, consisting of subsets of the actual sensor array, were employed using the method to demonstrate the number of sensors required to correctly characterize the irradiance variability at the site.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy
PublisherAmerican Solar Energy Society
Pages168-174
Number of pages7
Volume1
ISBN (Print)9781510801790
StatePublished - 2014
Event43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy - San Francisco, United States
Duration: Jul 6 2014Jul 10 2014

Other

Other43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy
CountryUnited States
CitySan Francisco
Period7/6/147/10/14

Fingerprint

Power plants
Sensors
Sensor arrays
Interpolation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Cite this

Monger, S., Morgan, E., Dyreson, A., & Acker, T. L. (2014). Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant. In 43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy (Vol. 1, pp. 168-174). American Solar Energy Society.

Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant. / Monger, Samuel; Morgan, Eric; Dyreson, Ana; Acker, Tom L.

43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy. Vol. 1 American Solar Energy Society, 2014. p. 168-174.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Monger, S, Morgan, E, Dyreson, A & Acker, TL 2014, Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant. in 43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy. vol. 1, American Solar Energy Society, pp. 168-174, 43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy, San Francisco, United States, 7/6/14.
Monger S, Morgan E, Dyreson A, Acker TL. Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant. In 43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy. Vol. 1. American Solar Energy Society. 2014. p. 168-174
Monger, Samuel ; Morgan, Eric ; Dyreson, Ana ; Acker, Tom L. / Applying the kriging method to predicting irradiance variability at a potential PV power plant. 43rd ASES National Solar Conference 2014, SOLAR 2014, Including the 39th National Passive Solar Conference and the 2nd Meeting of Young and Emerging Professionals in Renewable Energy. Vol. 1 American Solar Energy Society, 2014. pp. 168-174
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