A process-based model of forest ecosystems driven by meteorology

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

33 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although anthropogenic climate change is generally acknowledged as a reality, tree level models that respond to the boundary conditions expected to change as a result of global warming are largely non-existent. Consequently, a process-based model of individual tree growth driven by meteorology was developed. The model, Forest v5.1 predicts the growth of deciduous and coniferous species for the Great Lakes Region of North America. The model uses a daily time step and was written with two overriding design tenets in mind: (i) model drivers must mimic controls on plant growth as they exist in nature and (ii) model initialization must be achievable through the use of typical forest inventory field plot data. Forest v5.1 predicts the carbon, nutrient and water cycle as these influence tree growth and with particular emphasis on light interception and assimilation. Model outputs are both in dimension as well as biomass. Sensitivity analysis shows the importance of parameters that characterize maximum photosynthetic potential and scaling factors. A comparison of observed and predicted growth trajectories for 25 years indicates tree diameter development exhibits useful levels of precision (-0.12 to 0.11 cm year-1) relative to an empirical model. The model, using HadCM2-generated weather, projects that water use efficiency will increase as a result of climate change. Net basal area increment increases on average by 0.17 m2 ha-1 year-1 relative to a projection of current climate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)317-348
Number of pages32
JournalEcological Modelling
Volume179
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 30 2004
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

meteorology
forest ecosystems
forest ecosystem
tree growth
climate change
Great Lakes region
hydrologic cycle
forest inventory
interception
water use efficiency
basal area
tree and stand measurements
global warming
biogeochemical cycles
trajectories
sensitivity analysis
assimilation (physiology)
boundary condition
weather
trajectory

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Forested ecosystem
  • Growth and yield
  • Model validation
  • Process-based modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecological Modeling
  • Ecology

Cite this

A process-based model of forest ecosystems driven by meteorology. / Schwalm, Christopher R; Ek, Alan R.

In: Ecological Modelling, Vol. 179, No. 3, 30.11.2004, p. 317-348.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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